Palworld TCG Pull Rates: What 4,762 Opened Packs Actually Show

Dawn of Palpagos pull rates from four public datasets: RR 1 in 3.0 packs, SR 1 in 5.2, OSR 1 in 10.3, SSP 1 in 44. Why the per-box odds you're reading are wrong, why the SSP rate just moved on two packs, and what the dated 2nd Edition reprint does to the misprint premium.

Bushiroad has published no official pull rates for Palworld's first set. On the largest community tracker, at 4,762 logged packs as of September 7, 2026, a Double Rare shows up in 1 in 3.0 packs, a Super Rare in 1 in 5.2, and an Over Super Rare in 1 in 10.3 — roughly one OSR per 12-pack box. Those three are settled. The chase tiers are a different story, and this edition's story is a small number that finally moved for the wrong reason: in the nineteen days since August 19, the SSP sample grew by exactly two packs — and both of them were hits. The most-quoted rate in the game went from 1 in 48 to 1 in 44 on two logged packs, which is the self-reporting bias this article has been describing since launch, caught in the act.

Palworld OFFICIAL CARD GAME launched worldwide on July 30, 2026, and five weeks in its first set — BP01 "Dawn of Palpagos" — is still being opened, though more slowly. The community tracker anchoring this article has grown from 951 logged packs at launch to 3,378 on August 7, 3,767 on August 13, 4,023 on August 19, 4,529 on August 29 and 4,762 today, across 111 loggers. There is also, for the first time, a publisher date for the corrected reprint — which changes what the "Palword" misprint box is. This is what the numbers say now, how much each one can actually carry, and the one widely repeated per-box figure that does not mean what people think it means.

What is in a pack, a box and a case?

Confirmed product structure, from the official product page and retail listings:

The rarity ladder runs C (Common), U (Uncommon), R (Rare) and RR (Double Rare) in the base set, then the parallels: SR (Super Rare), OSR (Over Super Rare), SP (Special) and SSP (Super Special Parallel). The chase cards are parallels — alternate-art versions of cards that already exist at base rarity.

The pack itself follows a fixed slot model: 3 Commons, 3 Uncommons and 1 Rare, with one Uncommon slot upgraded to Double Rare or better in roughly 6 of every 10 packs. That model is worth stating because it is checkable, and it checks out — see the card-level data below.

What are the Palworld TCG pull rates?

Four independent public datasets exist. Here is what each reports, converted to the same unit — expected cards per 12-pack box.

The top three rows agree within about 10% across four samples gathered by different people using different methods. That is the strongest signal in this data: RR, SR and OSR rates are settled. Expressed per pack, the community tracker's figures as of September 7, 2026 are RR 33.7% (1 in 3.0 packs), SR 19.3% (1 in 5.2) and OSR 9.70% (1 in 10.3) — each within about a point of where it stood at launch, on a sample five times larger. All three drifted up by a fraction of a point since August 29; on samples of 2,700 to 4,000 packs that is noise.

The chase tiers show why a small sample never quite settles — and how it moves when it does. Between July 30 and August 7 the tracker's SP rate climbed from about 1 in 58 packs to 1 in 31 and its SSP from roughly 1 in 200 to 1 in 54 — a launch-week asymmetry we read as people logging hits more readily than whiffs. Through August the SSP row then froze completely: 25 hits in 1,196 packs, byte-identical from August 19 to August 29 while every other tier's sample grew. In the nine days since, SP added 6 hits across 122 new sample packs and barely moved (1 in 29.7 → 1 in 29.2). SSP added two hits in two sample packs — 27 in 1,198 — and its printed rate moved from 1 in 47.8 to 1 in 44.4 on that alone.

Read those two packs for what they are. A logger who records a pack only when it hits adds a hit and a pack in the same motion; two entries, two hits, zero whiffs is the signature of exactly that, not of a tier getting more common. The frozen row did not thaw; it was nudged by two of the luckiest packs in the dataset.

The current spread across the four public datasets: SP anywhere from 1 in 24 packs to 1 in 97, SSP from 1 in 44 to 1 in 150 — and there is a specific, checkable reason why.

Every tier has a different sample size — and the chase tiers have the smallest

The tracker publishes one headline figure: 4,762 packs. Its own data feed publishes eight, one per rarity, and they are not the same number. Each tier's rate is computed only over the packs where that tier was actually recorded — the page offers both a pack-by-pack and a whole-box logging mode, and not every entry fills in every row — so the denominator under each percentage varies by a factor of nearly four.

That matters, because the two tiers people care about most are the two with the least data behind them.

Intervals are Wilson score intervals at 95%, computed by Cardlogs from the tracker's published hit counts and per-tier samples (re-pulled September 7, 2026).

Read the bottom row against the one we published on August 29 — 25 hits, 1,196 packs, 1 in 32.6 to 1 in 70.4. The tracker logged 233 new packs in nine days and every other tier's sample grew by 46 to 152 packs; the SSP row grew by two, and both were hits. The interval narrowed by a few points at each end, which is what two hits on a 25-hit base does arithmetically, and it tells you nothing new about the card. Our best reading of why the chase rows lag stands: most recent entries come in through the tracker's whole-box logging mode with the rare-tier rows left blank, so the packs count everywhere except where the precision is needed — that is our hypothesis from the feed's shape, not the site's statement.

The consequence stands regardless of cause. The headline SSP rate of 1 in 44 is twenty-seven observed cards, and at that sample size the data cannot distinguish 1 in 31 from 1 in 64 — a spread of more than two to one, from the largest dataset that exists. The four public sources put SSP at 1 in 44, 1 in 55, 1 in 97 and 1 in 150; the smaller samples are exactly the ones that fall outside the tracker's interval. Most of the "disagreement" between Palworld pull-rate sources is not a disagreement at all. It is four small samples of the same rare event — and the one that moves, moves on two packs.

According to Cardlogs, the practical rule is: quote OSR and above as measured, quote SP as a range, and quote SSP as "somewhere between 1 in 30 and 1 in 65" — until the 1,198 grows by hundreds, not by two. Any page giving you an SSP rate to three decimal places is showing you the output of a model, because no public sample supports that precision.

Why the "per box" odds you are reading are wrong

This is the part worth your attention, because the most-cited source for Palworld pull rates prints a per-box column that is not measured.

The community tracker reports, alongside its per-pack rates, a "chance per box": on September 7, 2026 that column read 99% for RR, 92% for SR, 71% for OSR, 34% for SP, 24% for SSP. Those five numbers are reproducible to the decimal with one formula — the probability of at least one hit in 12 independent packs, or 1 − (1 − p)¹².

Run it on the September 7 rates: OSR 1 − (1 − 0.0970)¹² = 70.6%. SR 1 − (1 − 0.1932)¹² = 92.4%. SP 34.2%. SSP 23.9%. RR 99.3%. The reconstruction has now matched at launch, at 3,378 packs, at 3,767, at 4,023, at 4,529 and at 4,762 — six re-pulls, six matches; the column tracks the formula, not the boxes. The per-box column is a model output derived from the per-pack rate, and the model assumes each pack is an independent draw.

That assumption is contradicted by the same site's own finding: reported case openings yield 4 copies of every Double Rare — a complete playset — plus around 6 of each Rare, which is the signature of a collated case rather than a randomly filled one. If packs within a box are collated, hits are distributed more evenly than chance, and the true per-box odds are higher than the binomial says.

The observed boxes support exactly that. All 16 fully documented boxes — one 12-box case plus a separate four-box opening — contained at least one OSR. If the real per-box probability were 71%, the chance of 16 out of 16 is about 0.4%. Either boxes are collated, or the public sample is biased toward lucky boxes. Both are probably true to some degree; the playset evidence makes collation the better-supported explanation.

The most-cited Palworld page disagrees with itself, and the machines read the wrong half

Five weeks after launch the tracker's page carries two different datasets for the same metric, and the gap is not closing. Its hydrated calculator — the numbers a human sees — prints the logged data. Its static HTML, served before any JavaScript runs, prints an editorially rounded table that has not changed since we first read it on August 7. Side by side, on September 7, 2026:

Neither half is dishonest — the static table is a cautious editorial summary written before the sample grew, and the calculator is the raw log. But the static half is the one that ends up quoted, because it is also what the page ships in its FAQPage structured data: the JSON-LD block on that URL contains the 1-in-150 SSP answer and no trace of the 1-in-44 the same page is displaying. Search engines and AI assistants read the structured data. Five weeks after launch, anyone asking a chatbot for Palworld pull rates is still being handed the rounded, stale half of a page whose own logs disagree with it by a factor of three.

The practical takeaway on boxes: treat "about one OSR per box" as a reasonable planning assumption, treat "71% of boxes have one" as an artifact of a formula, and treat neither as a guarantee, because Bushiroad has confirmed nothing.

And on the God Pack — the tracker's label for an all-hit pack — the logs hold ten of them across 354 logged boxes, or 1 in 35 (2.8%). The hit count has been frozen at ten since mid-August while the box denominator keeps growing, so the rate is drifting down (1 in 29 → 1 in 31 → 1 in 34 → 1 in 35) the way an early-lucky figure regresses. The static table still says no confirmed sighting exists. Logger-entered and publisher-unconfirmed: file it next to the SSP rate as a number to watch, not one to buy sealed product on.

How reliable is community pull data?

Two opposite biases are visible in this dataset, and they partly cancel.

Reddit photo posts skew lucky — people post the box that hit, not the box that didn't. One commenter on the four-box thread made the opposing observation: every YouTube box opening he had watched contained exactly one OSR and never two, while Reddit photo posts routinely show more. Video openings are harder to cherry-pick after the fact, so they skew toward the honest floor.

The community tracker is the best-constructed of the four sources: it states plainly that its percentages "come solely from the numbers people have entered on this page. No estimates, no manufacturer figures, no scraped videos." That statement is still on the page five weeks after launch, and it is why the tracker's 4,762 packs anchor the table above. The self-reporting it describes is also the mechanism behind the launch-week chase-tier drift — and behind this edition's two-pack, two-hit SSP move. A methodology can be honest and biased at the same time.

The pace is the other thing to watch, and it halved. The tracker added 233 packs in the nine days to September 7 — about 26 a day, down from ~51 a day in the prior ten — and three new loggers (108 → 111). Product is still being opened, but the logging is slowing with the market's attention; the tier that needs hundreds of new sample packs to tighten got two. On that trajectory the chase tiers stay imprecise indefinitely — which is why the honest answer to "what is the SSP rate" is still a range.

One caveat on the total: these datasets are not cleanly additive. At least one of the Reddit openers was asked to log the same pulls into the community tracker and agreed, so some packs appear twice across the four sources. Roughly 4,800 packs is the honest scale of the public record as of September 7, 2026, not a sum — and the three Reddit-sourced samples are frozen at launch size, so the tracker is now more than 90% of it.

What does a card-level sample add?

The 97-pack sample is the only one that recorded every card rather than just the hits, so it is the only way to check the slot model. Across 679 cards:

Multiply by 7 cards per pack and the slot model falls out precisely: 2.98 Commons, 1.02 Rares, and 0.58 cards of RR-or-better per pack — that last figure being the "roughly 6 in 10 packs" upgrade, arrived at independently. The Uncommon count lands at 2.41 rather than 3, which is exactly the 0.58 upgraded slot being taken out of the Uncommon pool.

That is a useful thing to know before you buy: the upgrade replaces an Uncommon, so a pack with an SSP in it is not a pack with extra cards, it is a pack with one fewer Uncommon.

The same sample gives the non-rarity splits: 56.11% of cards are Pals, 21.21% Structures, 11.49% Events, 10.90% Gear, and 9.87% are Lucky Pals — about one in ten cards. Colors are near-even at 22–26% each except Colorless, which sits at 3.24% and is effectively a trial-deck rarity.

What about box price and card values?

Since August 12, 2026, Cardlogs tracks Palworld prices live — but the pull-rate data on this page is community-sourced and attributed, because Bushiroad publishes no official rates and a price feed cannot tell you what is inside a pack. What our price data CAN add is what each tier in the table above is worth. Sold-based medians on the English print as of September 7, 2026:

Nine days ago those medians read $387.50, $103.00, $25.00 and $6.70: the SP tier rose about 5%, the two tiers below it slipped 2–3%, and the SSP median did not move because it sits between the same two cards ($400 and $374.98). The top SSP, Chillet's Dragon Whisperer parallel, rose from $699 to $757.32 on its own.

Put the medians next to the rates and the chase content of a box prices itself. Expected counts per box hold whether or not packs are collated — unlike the per-box percentages above — so: 1.16 OSR × $24.50 + 0.41 SP × $107.99 + 0.27 SSP × $387.49 ≈ $178 of chase-tier cards per box, plus about $15 of Super Rares. The English box ask held a $149.99 median on September 7, unchanged from August 29 — the first flat read since launch after four straight moves — so the chase-tier medians inside a box now add up to roughly 18% MORE than the box costs, up from 11% nine days ago. The box stopped falling; the cards inside it did not stop repricing.

Two honest limits on that arithmetic, and together they are why it is not a Cardlogs Box EV. Each median covers only the cards in that tier with a sold price — four of the SSPs, twelve of the SPs — and a tier's unsold cards are unsold for a reason. And the SSP row is four prices spanning $229 to $757, so its median is the midpoint of two cards. Read it as "the chase tiers more than account for today's box price", not as a number to trade on. The full board is in the most expensive Palworld cards.

Sealed is the other half, and it is still an ask-side market: no completed-sale feed covers Palworld boxes. Our hand-gathered eBay read, published in full in the Palworld launch guide, has the English box at a $149.99 median on September 7 — flat on August 29 after week one's +44%, week two's stall, week three's −5.5% and the −9.1% of late August. The floor sits at $127.00 (one $60 listing excluded as an outlier at under half the next-cheapest) against $130.50 nine days earlier, on a thinner book: 33 single-box listings against 46. Japanese boxes ask a $94.22 median and Simplified Chinese $37.55. Those are asking prices; the card medians in the table above are sold-based.

One collector's note: the first print is misprinted — and the corrected print now has a date

Worth knowing before you sort your sealed product. The official BP01 product page carries an errata notice: "A printing error (Misspelling of the word 'Palworld') was found on the packs and box of the product." Bushiroad's stated remedy is that it "will adjust this in future reprints".

On September 4, 2026, the reprint got a schedule. Bushiroad's English site announced additional 1st Edition shipments of Dawn of Palpagos in September, followed by a 2nd Edition "scheduled to ship in late October" — and, the part that matters for collectors, "every card in the 2nd Edition reprint will feature a Roman numeral II in the bottom right corner." That settles the identification question for both halves of the product: 1st Edition packs and boxes carry the misspelling, and 1st Edition cards carry no mark at all, while the reprint marks every card. On eBay the reprint already exists as a listing: two "2nd Edition (Re-Print)" box presales at $110.00 and $115.00, shipping "Oct 30th" — 23–27% under the 1st Edition median — appeared in our September 7 read and were excluded from the box statistics above as pre-orders.

That makes every launch-window pack and box a first print with an officially acknowledged, visually identifiable error, and a corrected print with a ship date — the exact conditions under which packaging variants become collectible. Whether a premium survives depends on how much 1st Edition product exists, and the September restock says more of it is still coming. Riftbound collectors are already paying up for a first print distinguished by nothing more than bolder text and a different importer block.

The sellers moved before the announcement did. On September 7, 76% of English-print box listings led with an error or "1st Edition" tag (96% on August 29, 80% on August 19), the share explicitly naming the misprint held at 22%, and the premium on the misprint-named listings widened to about 17% ($175.06 against $149.99, on 8 named listings versus 29 unnamed) from the ~8% it had held for three weeks. Eight listings is a thin basis and we say so; the direction is what a dated reprint predicts. Until 2nd Edition boxes actually ship, that premium still buys the default product — per Bushiroad's own errata the misspelling covers the entire first run — but for the first time the "until" has a month attached.

Where this data comes from

This article aggregates four public sources: a community pull tracker with 4,762 logged packs from 111 loggers (re-pulled September 7, 2026; 4,529 on August 29, 4,023 on August 19, 3,767 on August 13, 3,378 on August 7 and 951 at launch), a card-level Google Sheets sample of 97 packs (679 cards) compiled from filmed openings, one complete 12-box case log, and a four-box opening drawn from a single master case. Product structure is from the official BP01 product page and retail listings; the reprint schedule and the 2nd Edition marking are from Bushiroad's September 4, 2026 announcement. No Bushiroad pull rates exist to check any of it against.

Four pieces of analysis here are ours rather than any source's: the per-box figures in the comparison table are expected counts converted to a common unit; the 95% Wilson intervals are computed from the tracker's own per-tier hit counts and samples, which is the only way to see that its SSP rate rests on 1,198 packs rather than 4,762 — and the only way to see that those 1,198 grew by two; the binomial reconstruction of its per-box column is recomputed at each re-pull (six matches so far); and the static-versus-live comparison comes from reading both layers of the same URL on the same day. Card prices are Cardlogs' own sold-based medians for the English print, pulled September 7, 2026; box asks are a same-day eBay read using the launch guide's filters.

Cardlogs has tracked Palworld prices since August 12, 2026 — 265 English-print cards, 219 of them priced, sold-based from eBay completed listings via PriceCharting — alongside One Piece, Dragon Ball, Riftbound and vintage Pokémon, with graded population data and set-level EV. A published Cardlogs Box EV for Dawn of Palpagos still waits on two things: a second marketplace to corroborate against, since no other feed lists Palworld yet, and enough priced parallels per tier that the medians above stop resting on four cards. For how the Box EV calculation and the multi-source pricing behind it actually work, see how Cardlogs tracks TCG prices. Follow along at cardlogs.com, free on web, iOS and Android.